Climate Change is Speeding Up
The effects of climate change may be much more severe and arrive much sooner than originally predicted.
According to a recently published research paper in “Nature Climate Change” our existing climate models underestimate how rapidly the Arctic is currently warming. They discovered that today’s rate of temperature increase – about one degree Celsius per decade – is similar to the rate that occurred prior to periods of abrupt warming during the last 100,000 year long Ice Age. This is a model that can shed light on our current global warming.
The geologic record shows that during the recent Ice Age temperatures tended to rise a few degrees globally over 50 or so years, and then the temperature rose very fast over just two decades. These periods of warming occurred at least 20 times and rose as much as 15 degrees. The new model will need to reflect the rapid warming that occurs when this condition of steady warming exists. It will also have to increase the rate at which the arctic temperature is rising and those effects globally.
Scientists have been recording some events supporting more rapid warming, including changes in the arctic which had been expected to take longer to occur than they actually did. One such event was the collapse of a very large portion of the Milne Ice Shelf on July 30 this summer. The collapse of such a large portion of an ice shelf shows that the temperature in the arctic has been increasing much faster than the latest climate model predicted.
The breaking off of a section of the Milne Ice Shelf, a piece the size of Manhattan Island, in and by itself will result in the speeding up of both sea level rise and the warming of the atmosphere. The loss of such a large surface area of reflective ice and its replacement with sunlight absorbing seawater increases the rate of atmosphere warming. The ocean reflects only 6 percent of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest, while sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of the incoming energy. Ice shelves also slow the flow of the glacier into the sea acting as a brake. When huge portions of the shelf break off, pressure is taken off that brake. This accelerates both the collapse of the remainder of the shelf and the flow of the glacier to the sea.
Other recent events support their position of a more rapidly warming climate. Canada’s Arctic also lost two of its ice caps on the Hazen Plateau in St. Patrick Bay several years earlier than scientists had originally expected. Furthermore, the Arctic region has seen dramatic spikes in temperature over the past few years. Earlier this summer, parts of Russia’s Arctic for the first time surpassed 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius). The study also points to the fact that arctic sea ice has disappeared much quicker than most models predicted. (See our recent article about sea ice.)
If this most recent interpretation of events and data proves to be correct, the time frame we must work in to mitigate the most severe effects of climate change will be much smaller. The current extreme weather being experienced in California and the South Western United States is just a sampling of things to come.
We all need to work together to put the brakes on global warming. Do what you can as an individual to reduce your contribution to global warming and demand your government officials take meaningful immediate steps. The time to debate the issue of rapid global warming has passed and the time to take action is upon us.
Foot notes:
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/new-study-warns-abrupt-arctic-warming-canadian-ice-shelf-collapses
Video of the Milne Ice Shelf story:
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