CBO Report on Transportation Sector Shows CO2 Emissions Could Start Moving in the Right Direction

                                                                 Paramount Pictures Corporation

Electric vehicles and green electric generation are working together to help reach the Paris agreement goal of keeping the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

By Michael Coppola and Nancy Williams

All the reliable sources monitoring the climate crisis seem to agree that we are not doing nearly enough to hold the planet’s average atmosphere temperature to just 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period. This was thought to be an acceptable increase which could allow us to eventually reduce back to a pre-industrial level.

The Congressional Budget Office, a non-partisan organization of the US Federal Government, published a report in December, 2022 entitled “Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the Transportation Sector.” The report has some encouraging information about the electricity generating and electric vehicle industries, but it also points out some limiting factors for reducing CO2 emissions.

The report shows that as of 2021 the transportation sector; trains, planes, ships and automobiles, has taken the lead for the first time from the electric generating industry in producing the largest percentage of greenhouse gases in the United States. The CBO states, “Emissions of carbon dioxide in the transportation sector accounted for 38 percent of energy-related emissions in the United States in 2021—the largest share of such emissions of any sector of the economy.”

When you break down the sector further you see that emissions from commercial trucks and buses accounted for 25 percent. “Personal vehicles—cars, light-duty trucks (including sport utility vehicles, crossover utility vehicles, minivans, and pickup trucks) and motorcycles—were responsible for 58 percent of emissions in the transportation sector in 2019.” Air, rail, ships, and pipelines accounted for the remaining 17 percent. The personal vehicles portion of the sector caused most of the trouble in reducing emissions. The CBO report gives reasons why the CAFÉ, Corporate Average Fuel Economy, standards did not achieve their goal for the personal transportation sector.

First, “Demand for transportation is built into the places that people live, work, and socialize and the places that businesses produce and sell their goods. Those locations can change, but such change typically happens slowly.”

Second, the transportation sector is overwhelmingly dependent on a single fossil fuel, i.e. petroleum. Additionally, they point out that “few cost-effective alternatives fuels are currently available.”

Third, people tend to own vehicles for a long time, delaying the effects of improvements in the fuel efficiency of new vehicles.

What also contributed to the slowing decline in emissions for the personal transportation sector was the dramatic shift of U.S car manufacturing from sedans to SUV’s and light trucks. The CAFÉ standards only require car manufacturers to achieve an average reduction of emissions for their entire fleet. The CBO states, “A fleet’s average fuel economy depends not only on the fuel economy of each model of car and truck but also on the mix of vehicles sold. Light-duty trucks, which include popular compact sport utility vehicles, represented only half of sales of new light-duty vehicles as recently as 2013 but outsold cars 3 to 1 by 2021.

The good news in the CBO report is found in the section on the impact of electric vehicles. The sale of EV’s has and continues to increase. This is projected to increase as the purchasing incentives come in to play as well as the tax incentives for construction of charging stations. “In 2021, 610,000 light-duty electric vehicles were sold, and three-quarters of them relied entirely on electricity to operate.” The number of charging stations is keeping up with demand and has roughly doubled from 2019 to 2021.

The CBO reports, “When comparing emissions from operating different types of vehicles, the emissions from producing and distributing the power to operate the vehicles are relevant. A car getting 59.4 miles per gallon (the standard for new cars in 2026) will emit about 0.33 pounds of CO2 per mile from burning motor fuel. Producing and distributing the fuel also creates greenhouse gases. On average, those emissions add roughly 30 percent to the emissions released from the tailpipe of a light-duty vehicle." (The total amounts to roughly 0.43 pounds CO2/mile.)  

 No emissions are produced by the motor of a vehicle powered by electricity. However, generating electricity results in emissions that will be either higher or lower, depending on the amount of green energy generation. The CBO projects that by 2030 the growth of green energy will reduce CO2 emissions in the electric power sector to half their 2021 level. This is good news for the transportation sector and the planet. It means that EV’s replacing ICE vehicles will have a big effect on reducing the CO2 emissions.

Most recently several advances will lead to a much faster growth in the electric vehicle market. The development and commercial application of the Lithium Iron, LiFe battery has several advantages over the current Lithium NCA/ NCM versions that were used in almost all EV’s until 2022. The LiFe battery is lighter, can be charge to 100% and run down to 0% without damaging the battery. It has 10 times the useful life compared to the older versions of batteries. It can also be fast charged without damage to the battery. This not only makes it more convenient to own and also removes the consumer’s anxiety of having to replace the battery in 10 years, but also means recycling the batteries is less urgent giving the recycle industry time to ramp up.

Another good development is the announcement that Ford has entered into an agreement with Tesla to share the Tesla high speed charging network. This will ease the consumer’s fear of finding a high speed charger when on the road.

In the future, charging while standing still will not be the only way to keep your EV running. A major breakthrough was made this past year in revolutionizing EV charging. Electreon, an Israeli startup founded in 2013, is developing electric roadways that can charge moving vehicles wirelessly, potentially eliminating the need for lengthy pit stops or plugging in. To demonstrate the tech's potential Electreon drove an electric Toyota for 1,207 miles on a test track that had its wireless charging coils embedded under the asphalt. This technology also means that smaller batteries can be used, which in turn will mean lighter weight vehicles with higher efficiency and less mining of the source minerals.

Another action that is accelerating the growth in the number of EV’s is the support and promotion of them by the electric generating industry. Duke Energy one of the largest electric utilities in the U.S. is placing pop-up ads on WWW applications directing viewers to where they can research and buy EV’s. It is easy to understand why an industry that makes its money selling electricity would want more EV’s on the road.

We regularly hear of tipping points that will lead to accelerating climate change. Between the advances in EV charging, battery technology, and the rapid growth of green electricity generation, we have the foundation for a technology tipping point that will make significant strides toward saving the planet. The light shining at the end of the tunnel just may be the taillights of an electric vehicle.

References:

https://interestingengineering.com/transportation/worlds-first-ev-charging-highway-trial-to-start-in-italy

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/a-toyota-ev-drove-1200-miles-without-stopping-to-charge-thanks-to-electric-roads-with-wireless-charging/ar-AA1bYzi1

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58861